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Author: Subject: Trump not even the 2nd choice of economists when it comes to the economy

True Peach





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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 08:11 AM
When the 414 members of the National Association of Business Economists were asked which presidential candidate will do the best job of managing the economy, Trump (14%) came in 3rd behind Johnson (15%) and Clinton (55%). The rest didn't know or had no opinion. The survey, released today, was conducted between July 20 to Aug. 2.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/22/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-or-g ary-johnson-u-s-business-economists-have-a-strong-preference/

 

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Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 01:40 PM
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.
 

True Peach



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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 02:14 PM
I don't buy into the notion that President's have a major influence on the economy one way or the other. Government policies are a factor but these are determined more by congress than the executive. But bigger than that are the natural cycles of market influences, availability of raw materials, natural disasters, and a host of other things. Candidates talk big during campaign season but I wouldn't give them too much credit for their ability to control the economy.

 

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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 03:32 PM
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


What happened this time?

 

True Peach



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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 03:39 PM
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


What happened this time?
republican obstruction.

 

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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 04:17 PM
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


What happened this time?


Corporations profits are way up, the stock market is at record highs, unemployment is way down. The worst economic collapse in history was averted.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 04:20 PM
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


What happened this time?


Corporations profits are way up, the stock market is at record highs, unemployment is way down. The worst economic collapse in history was averted.

Bingo.

 

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  posted on 8/23/2016 at 05:04 PM
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH. I'm just guessing that those Trump fans are probably pretty pleased with their return on investments in the market the last almost 8 years.

 

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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 01:01 AM
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?

 

True Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 07:12 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?

Short month-to-month windows can vary inside the larger trend for a wide range of reasons. But you're an investor so already know that, don't you.

Clearly the stock market has performed well since Obama took office. I'm not arguing causation, but it fits the trend that was mentioned and is an interesting considering the doom and gloom warnings from the right about how he'd destroy everything when he took office.






[Edited on 8/25/2016 by gondicar]

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 07:40 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?

Short 2-6 month windows can vary inside the larger trend. But you know that, don't you. Clearly the stock market has performed well since Obama took office. I'm not arguing causation, but it is an interesting trend considering the doom and gloom warnings from the right about how he'd destroy everything when he took office.



It's only interesting if you think that the President has a major influence on the market. Not as interesting if you consider that in 2009-10 we were coming out of a major recession and the market had no place to go but up. If you really think politicians have a major influence on the economy (I don't, I think they have a minor influence at best) then you need to consider that the best performance seems to be when we have a divided government, with the Executive controlled by one party and the Legislative controlled by the other. Given that, you need to consider that it may be the Legislative which has the greater influence.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 07:41 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?

Short 2-6 month windows can vary inside the larger trend. But you know that, don't you. Clearly the stock market has performed well since Obama took office. I'm not arguing causation, but it is an interesting trend considering the doom and gloom warnings from the right about how he'd destroy everything when he took office.



It's only interesting if you think that the President has a major influence on the market. Not as interesting if you consider that in 2009-10 we were coming out of a major recession and the market had no place to go but up. If you really think politicians have a major influence on the economy (I don't, I think they have a minor influence at best) then you need to consider that the best performance seems to be when we have a divided government, with the Executive controlled by one party and the Legislative controlled by the other. Given that, you need to consider that it may be the Legislative which has the greater influence.


I only said it was interesting because of what the GOP and others on the "pro-business" politicians on the right were predicting.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 07:46 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?

Short 2-6 month windows can vary inside the larger trend. But you know that, don't you. Clearly the stock market has performed well since Obama took office. I'm not arguing causation, but it is an interesting trend considering the doom and gloom warnings from the right about how he'd destroy everything when he took office.



It's only interesting if you think that the President has a major influence on the market. Not as interesting if you consider that in 2009-10 we were coming out of a major recession and the market had no place to go but up. If you really think politicians have a major influence on the economy (I don't, I think they have a minor influence at best) then you need to consider that the best performance seems to be when we have a divided government, with the Executive controlled by one party and the Legislative controlled by the other. Given that, you need to consider that it may be the Legislative which has the greater influence.


I only said it was interesting because of what the GOP and others on the "pro-business" politicians on the right were predicting.

Understood. You made it clear that you're not arguing causation. I wasn't directing my comments to you, but to anyone who argues that a particular candidate will save or ruin the economy.

 

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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 08:09 AM
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?

Short 2-6 month windows can vary inside the larger trend. But you know that, don't you. Clearly the stock market has performed well since Obama took office. I'm not arguing causation, but it is an interesting trend considering the doom and gloom warnings from the right about how he'd destroy everything when he took office.



It's only interesting if you think that the President has a major influence on the market. Not as interesting if you consider that in 2009-10 we were coming out of a major recession and the market had no place to go but up. If you really think politicians have a major influence on the economy (I don't, I think they have a minor influence at best) then you need to consider that the best performance seems to be when we have a divided government, with the Executive controlled by one party and the Legislative controlled by the other. Given that, you need to consider that it may be the Legislative which has the greater influence.


Home Run

 

Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 08:28 AM

You can use the same chart to illustrate new welfare recipients, food stamp usage, and people who have given up looking for work since Obama has taken office.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 08:51 AM
quote:

You can use the same chart to illustrate new welfare recipients, food stamp usage, and people who have given up looking for work since Obama has taken office.


Please show us.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 08:52 AM
quote:
You can use the same chart to illustrate new welfare recipients, food stamp usage, and people who have given up looking for work since Obama has taken office.

You can also use this chart to illustrate my general happiness level since I suffered through the decline, eventual bankruptcy, and government bailout at GM in 2008-09 and then I retired at the end of 2009. The ups & downs on this graph directly correlate to my contentedness.

 

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Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 09:30 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?


Are you myopic? The original statement was "the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH". Your response was for a targeted period to prove a snarky point.

Go do a little research with historical perspective, and it may help you understand that over time the premise I stated is accurate.

alloak, just wondering if your returns have been better under Obama than Bush? If you had reasonable investments over the last 8 years you should have been rewarded well.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 09:58 AM
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?


Are you myopic? The original statement was "the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH". Your response was for a targeted period to prove a snarky point.



Not at all. I wanted you to provide the reasoning to back up your claims. I notice you avoided answering
the questions.

FWIW, I have better returns at the poker table when I eat shrimp and wear blue.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 03:15 PM
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?


Are you myopic? The original statement was "the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH". Your response was for a targeted period to prove a snarky point.



Not at all. I wanted you to provide the reasoning to back up your claims. I notice you avoided answering
the questions.

FWIW, I have better returns at the poker table when I eat shrimp and wear blue.


I don't think there's any one policy that points to a president in particular. Others have delved into this - read above. The bigger point is that you nor anyone else can disagree that markets perform better statistically under Dems in the White House. Maybe investors and Wall Street prefer that psychologically. Point is you can't argue with performance of the markets (Dems vs GOP). I challenge you to go back and do a bit of research & tell us what you find. Prove the premise wrong.

In the meantime, enjoy the returns you should be receiving as the market goes up under this president - coincidence or not. If history holds true, and your portfolio matters, you would be concerned about the stock market should the "great businessman" get elected. Trump, his big mouth, and the perception of his unpredictability would scare the crap out of the markets.

If you want to talk poker, I'm all in. Open a new pertinent thread.

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 8/25/2016 at 03:21 PM
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?


Are you myopic? The original statement was "the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH". Your response was for a targeted period to prove a snarky point.



Not at all. I wanted you to provide the reasoning to back up your claims. I notice you avoided answering
the questions.

FWIW, I have better returns at the poker table when I eat shrimp and wear blue.


See, both in the stock market and poker, you always get better returns with Blue!

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 8/31/2016 at 01:43 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?


Are you myopic? The original statement was "the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH". Your response was for a targeted period to prove a snarky point.



Not at all. I wanted you to provide the reasoning to back up your claims. I notice you avoided answering
the questions.

FWIW, I have better returns at the poker table when I eat shrimp and wear blue.


I don't think there's any one policy that points to a president in particular. Others have delved into this - read above. The bigger point is that you nor anyone else can disagree that markets perform better statistically under Dems in the White House. Maybe investors and Wall Street prefer that psychologically. Point is you can't argue with performance of the markets (Dems vs GOP). I challenge you to go back and do a bit of research & tell us what you find. Prove the premise wrong.

In the meantime, enjoy the returns you should be receiving as the market goes up under this president - coincidence or not. If history holds true, and your portfolio matters, you would be concerned about the stock market should the "great businessman" get elected. Trump, his big mouth, and the perception of his unpredictability would scare the crap out of the markets.

If you want to talk poker, I'm all in. Open a new pertinent thread.


The market gained 227% during Calvin Coolidge's tenure, a Republican generally known as one of the worst Presidents on record. The S&P 500 gained all of 27% under Jimmy Carter. I think it's safe to say there's a myriad of factors more meaningful to market direction than which party happens to be in power. Fun playing along, but I think you already realize this....

 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 8/31/2016 at 06:57 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?


Are you myopic? The original statement was "the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH". Your response was for a targeted period to prove a snarky point.



Not at all. I wanted you to provide the reasoning to back up your claims. I notice you avoided answering
the questions.

FWIW, I have better returns at the poker table when I eat shrimp and wear blue.


I don't think there's any one policy that points to a president in particular. Others have delved into this - read above. The bigger point is that you nor anyone else can disagree that markets perform better statistically under Dems in the White House. Maybe investors and Wall Street prefer that psychologically. Point is you can't argue with performance of the markets (Dems vs GOP). I challenge you to go back and do a bit of research & tell us what you find. Prove the premise wrong.

In the meantime, enjoy the returns you should be receiving as the market goes up under this president - coincidence or not. If history holds true, and your portfolio matters, you would be concerned about the stock market should the "great businessman" get elected. Trump, his big mouth, and the perception of his unpredictability would scare the crap out of the markets.

If you want to talk poker, I'm all in. Open a new pertinent thread.


The market gained 227% during Calvin Coolidge's tenure, a Republican generally known as one of the worst Presidents on record. The S&P 500 gained all of 27% under Jimmy Carter. I think it's safe to say there's a myriad of factors more meaningful to market direction than which party happens to be in power. Fun playing along, but I think you already realize this....


I would assume you know that there are always exceptions to rules and patterns, and you jumped on that...goody. History has shown over time that markets perform better when the GOP does not hold the White House, but you probably knew that also.

Regardless of factors other than which party holds the WH, I doubt even you would argue that if an ivestor placed a sum of money in the market during a GOP president in office, the record clearly proves you would have inferior returns as opposed to if a Dem was in office.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 8/31/2016 at 07:42 AM
quote:
quote:
The market gained 227% during Calvin Coolidge's tenure, a Republican generally known as one of the worst Presidents on record. The S&P 500 gained all of 27% under Jimmy Carter. I think it's safe to say there's a myriad of factors more meaningful to market direction than which party happens to be in power. Fun playing along, but I think you already realize this....

I would assume you know that there are always exceptions to rules and patterns, and you jumped on that...goody. History has shown over time that markets perform better when the GOP does not hold the White House, but you probably knew that also.

Regardless of factors other than which party holds the WH, I doubt even you would argue that if an ivestor placed a sum of money in the market during a GOP president in office, the record clearly proves you would have inferior returns as opposed to if a Dem was in office.

I already expressed my opinion that politics in general and the Presidency in particular have little affect on stock market performance, but if you insist on going down that road you need to know that the biggest positive impact seems to come when Republicans control the Senate.

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/4036/political-indicators/revisiting-party-in-p ower-and-stock-returns/

Of course we all know that an even bigger impact comes from which team wins the Superbowl.

 

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  posted on 8/31/2016 at 07:54 AM
quote:
I wonder who this group picked in previous elections? Usually businesses go with the Republicans even though traditionally the economy does better under Democratic presidencies.


As previously posted but probably a good reminder for the GOP slurpers, the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH.


Interesting....During the period from 12/1/15 to 2/11/16 the S&P 500 plunged 13.2%. Which Obama/Democrat policies caused the index to drop so drastically during this period?

Just as during the period of 2/11/16 to the present, the S&P has rallied 19.1% Please point out specifically what Obama/Democrat policies caused this expansion.

See where this is heading?


Are you myopic? The original statement was "the stock market does better when a Democrat is in the WH". Your response was for a targeted period to prove a snarky point.



Not at all. I wanted you to provide the reasoning to back up your claims. I notice you avoided answering
the questions.

FWIW, I have better returns at the poker table when I eat shrimp and wear blue.


I don't think there's any one policy that points to a president in particular. Others have delved into this - read above. The bigger point is that you nor anyone else can disagree that markets perform better statistically under Dems in the White House. Maybe investors and Wall Street prefer that psychologically. Point is you can't argue with performance of the markets (Dems vs GOP). I challenge you to go back and do a bit of research & tell us what you find. Prove the premise wrong.

In the meantime, enjoy the returns you should be receiving as the market goes up under this president - coincidence or not. If history holds true, and your portfolio matters, you would be concerned about the stock market should the "great businessman" get elected. Trump, his big mouth, and the perception of his unpredictability would scare the crap out of the markets.

If you want to talk poker, I'm all in. Open a new pertinent thread.


The market gained 227% during Calvin Coolidge's tenure, a Republican generally known as one of the worst Presidents on record. The S&P 500 gained all of 27% under Jimmy Carter. I think it's safe to say there's a myriad of factors more meaningful to market direction than which party happens to be in power. Fun playing along, but I think you already realize this....


I would assume you know that there are always exceptions to rules and patterns, and you jumped on that...goody. History has shown over time that markets perform better when the GOP does not hold the White House, but you probably knew that also.

Regardless of factors other than which party holds the WH, I doubt even you would argue that if an ivestor placed a sum of money in the market during a GOP president in office, the record clearly proves you would have inferior returns as opposed to if a Dem was in office.


To each his own. If you put a "sum of money" into the market at any given time based on which party happens to occupy the WH, you're liable to get clocked. Downdrafts can and do happen regardless of D or R. Personally, that would be the last factor I would consider (except perhaps who won the Super Bowl.) I can't remember even thinking about it when making buy/sell decisions. Too many other meaningful factors are at play.

 
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